Curse

FoxBat · Oct 31, 2010, 03:15 PM // 15:15

It's beyond the scope of this study, but I wonder something.

There is the claim that holiday drops reduce other types of drops. But it is clear that holiday drops are always additional and do not replace a normal monsters individual drop, as one can often see both items dropping. But what if the gold value of ToTs was counted against the generation of scaled items (gold, whites). That is, ToTs while not themselves scaled, are counted as part of the value calculation as to whether or not to drop a scaled item.

Lourens · Oct 31, 2010, 04:32 PM // 16:32

Very Nice people keep up the good work

Spiritz · Nov 01, 2010, 07:18 AM // 07:18

The totbags affecting places like uw is a hard one , im one of the people who do tend to avoid uw on events with drops.It may be bad luck but when 3 of us used to do uw as 600/smite with ss necro normally we`d do 1 run a night and on avg we`d get at least 1 ecto each but when events had drops we`d end up with quite a few totbags and no ectos.
Like i said may be bad luck - which if 1 player is likely but 3 players unlucky does push the odds up.I know its been said with vaetires that on events its been noticed the amount of glacial stones drops which also supports the theory.
Sadly its something that we may never find out and a number of us will stay superstitous.

Voodoo Rage · Nov 01, 2010, 02:38 PM // 14:38

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spiritz

The totbags affecting places like uw is a hard one , im one of the people who do tend to avoid uw on events with drops.It may be bad luck but when 3 of us used to do uw as 600/smite with ss necro normally we`d do 1 run a night and on avg we`d get at least 1 ecto each but when events had drops we`d end up with quite a few totbags and no ectos.
Like i said may be bad luck - which if 1 player is likely but 3 players unlucky does push the odds up.I know its been said with vaetires that on events its been noticed the amount of glacial stones drops which also supports the theory.
Sadly its something that we may never find out and a number of us will stay superstitous.

It's called confirmation bias.

You will have strings of bad runs now and then regardless whether or not it is a holiday drop weekend but since the holiday weekend is noteworthy in your mind, the human thing to do is to try to fit the pattern into your preconceived notion.

It's the same fallacy associated with the myth that emergency rooms are busier on nights there is a full moon. This pervasive myth was based on the same concept. ER's have busy nights now and then but when they do have one on the night of a full moon everyone remembers it. When they actually did a study on the phenomenon and looked at the actual numbers involved, there was no influence at all by the full moon.

For me it was the opposite. I was convinced that holiday drops actually INCREASED the rate that other things dropped because "it seemed to me" that I was getting phenomenal drop rates over holiday weekends. BUT, when I tracked the data over several hundred farming runs (raptor runs in this case), the data was completely the same either way.

Showtime · Nov 05, 2010, 05:38 AM // 05:38

I always like these threads, but problems with how accurate the data was and how accurately it was calculated are just the tip of the iceberg.

I am pretty sure that someone could just spend some time researching game code to find out definite answers. Things like time of day, numbers of people, etc. have to be in the code for it to have an effect on drops.

impulsion · Nov 05, 2010, 07:42 AM // 07:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by Showtime

I always like these threads, but problems with how accurate the data was and how accurately it was calculated are just the tip of the iceberg.

I am pretty sure that someone could just spend some time researching game code to find out definite answers. Things like time of day, numbers of people, etc. have to be in the code for it to have an effect on drops.

That information will be only on the server, which nobody has except ANet.

Black Metal · Nov 06, 2010, 07:58 PM // 19:58

hey, what's a little property crime, intellectual propery theft, and all sorts of trespassing and breaking & entering violations in the name of farming research?

great suggestion showtime!

BogusDude · Nov 08, 2010, 09:41 PM // 21:41

Try reading the definitions on wiki for loot scaling and anti farm code next time, save yourself some pointless time and effort.
Averages are nice but more helpful with StdDev/Cp values

Based on your result 99% of your drops will be

ToT bags 0.15 to 8.63 per run with an average of 4.39
Unids -1.22 to 3.03 per run with an average of 0.9
Mes tomes -1.21 to 1.7 per run with an average of 0.25
G stones-1.59 to 2.35 per run with an average of 0.38

Obviously you can't get negative drops so adjust to 0 for skewed results, where they would be negative you'll get 0.
Not got Minitab installed on my pc atm to check data properly else i could demonstrate more clearly with some distribution curves which are more useful than your control charts

Voodoo Rage · Nov 08, 2010, 10:45 PM // 22:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by BogusDude

Try reading the definitions on wiki for loot scaling and anti farm code next time, save yourself some pointless time and effort. Averages are nice but more helpful with StdDev/Cp values

Anti-farm code myths are still really pervasive in this game. I think threads like this hopefully will provide some evidence for people who continue to disseminate this nonsense.